In March, EpochAI released an AI automation prediction model, which predicts rising wages for the near-term, but a rapidly declining labor share of income in the 2030s.
Why would housing not be robust against AGI? If socialization and bespoke personal services become the only advantages that humans retain after labor becomes supplanted, then agglomeration effects should be large. People will pay a lot for proximity and convenience.
Unless you mean that it will only be robust in desirable cities, but that's already sort of the case.
This is a very fair point! Obviously somewhat speculative. Factors that give me this intuition: no demand from AIs for human housing, lower construction costs, lower dependence of humans on cities as labor markets (digital nomads/retired people go to Bali not NYC), selfdriving cars, demographics. I can see a fair countercase with in-person amenities + remaining labor share in-person - but would be surprised if those exceed above.
How are businesses generating profits in a post-labor economy? Without humans with income to pay for goods/services, how will AGI technology generate a return? Is there research or essays on the impact of potential mass unemployment?
Why would housing not be robust against AGI? If socialization and bespoke personal services become the only advantages that humans retain after labor becomes supplanted, then agglomeration effects should be large. People will pay a lot for proximity and convenience.
Unless you mean that it will only be robust in desirable cities, but that's already sort of the case.
This is a very fair point! Obviously somewhat speculative. Factors that give me this intuition: no demand from AIs for human housing, lower construction costs, lower dependence of humans on cities as labor markets (digital nomads/retired people go to Bali not NYC), selfdriving cars, demographics. I can see a fair countercase with in-person amenities + remaining labor share in-person - but would be surprised if those exceed above.
How are businesses generating profits in a post-labor economy? Without humans with income to pay for goods/services, how will AGI technology generate a return? Is there research or essays on the impact of potential mass unemployment?